Katia Maria Paschoaletto Micchi de Barros Ferraz1*, Silvio Frosini de Barros Ferraz1, Rogerio Cunha de Paula2, Beatriz Beisiegel2 & Christine Breitenmoser3 |
Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) can be useful for different conservation purposes. We discuss the importance of fitting spatial scale and using current records and relevant predictors aiming conservation. We choose jaguar (Panthera onca) as a target species and Brazil and Atlantic Forest biome as study areas. We tested two different extents (continent and biome) and resolutions (~4 Km and ~1 Km) in Maxent with 186 records and 11 predictors (bioclimatic, elevation, land-use and landscape structure). All models presented satisfactory AUC values (>0.70) and low omission errors (<23%). SDMs were scale-sensitive as the use of reduced extent implied in significant gains to model performance generating more constrained and real predictive distribution maps. Continental-scale models performed poorly in predicting potential current jaguar distribution, but they reached the historic distribution. Specificity increased significantly from coarse to finer-scale models due to the reduction of overprediction. The variability of environmental space (E-space) differed for most of climatic variables between continental and biome-scale and the representation of the E-space by predictors differed significantly (t = 2.42, g.l.= 9, P < 0.05). Refining spatial scale, incorporating landscape variables and improving the quality of biological data are essential for improving model prediction for conservation purposes. Key words: Conservation Biology, Environmental Space, Jaguar, Landscape, Maxent, Scale. Introduction |